Poll: Labour, National and the crucial 8%

by The Listener / 08 September, 2017
Prime Minister Bill English and Labour leader Jacinda Ardern at the Leaders Debate. Photo/Getty Images

Prime Minister Bill English and Labour leader Jacinda Ardern at the Leaders Debate. Photo/Getty Images

Labour’s support has almost doubled since May, yet National’s is virtually unchanged, according to our latest poll.

Labour is leading National in the latest Bauer Media Insights IQ poll, with 37% against National’s 34%. Next is New Zealand First on 7%, followed by the Greens on 6%, The Opportunities Party on 2% and Act and Maori on 1%. The poll canvassed 1528 New Zealanders aged 18-plus who are planning to vote in this year’s election and was taken from September 1-5.

While National has almost held its own since the previous Insights IQ poll in May, down one percentage point from 35%, Labour has almost doubled its support, up 18 points from 19%. The Greens are the biggest losers, down seven points, and the don’t knows are on 10%, down from 18%.

However, a crucial 8% of undecided voters said either their party vote was very likely to change before the election (2%) or that they had no idea who they would vote for (6%). A further 16% said their party vote may change before the election.

When respondents were asked whether they expected New Zealand polls to prove more accurate than those ahead of the US presidential election and the Brexit vote in the UK, 17% said yes, 52% said maybe, 15% said no and 15% didn’t know.

In the preferred prime minister stakes, Labour’s Jacinda Ardern on 46% is well ahead of National’s Bill English on 36%. But the results were reversed when it came to which leader was most capable of managing the economy: English on 47% soundly beat Ardern on 29%. The age of those polled made a big difference to beliefs about managing the economy: under-forties rated the two leaders equally at 35%, while those aged 60-plus scored English 58% and Ardern just 21%.

In the attitude questions, 84% think we do incredibly well for a small country at the bottom of the world, and 76% believe, given the current state of the world, there is no better country to live in. Fifty-three per cent think New Zealand is heading in the right direction, 23% think we’re on the wrong track and 24% don’t know.

Respondents were also asked about the biggest issues capturing their attention during the election campaign. Housing, with 413 unprompted mentions, topped the list, followed by health (218), education (210), tax (188) and water (116).

Election-year barometer

This is the final Election Time Barometer of our election-year research. The results are weighted by age, gender and region, and the margin of error at the 95% confidence level is ±2.5%.

This article was first published in the September 16, 2017 issue of the New Zealand Listener.

RelatedArticlesModule - Poll
MostReadArticlesCollectionWidget - Most Read - Used in articles
AdvertModule - Advert - M-Rec / Halfpage

Latest

How to lose weight without a diet
87141 2018-02-25 00:00:00Z Nutrition

How to lose weight without a diet

by Jennifer Bowden

"The irony is the intentional pursuit of weight loss – dieting, in other words – is actually a predictor of future weight gain."

Read more
Baby boomers are rethinking retirement for a later-life reboot
87313 2018-02-24 00:00:00Z Social issues

Baby boomers are rethinking retirement for a later…

by Sally Blundell

The biggest cohort of baby boomers is reaching retirement age – and many are not planning a quiet dotage.

Read more
School shootings and Russian indictments
87455 2018-02-24 00:00:00Z World

School shootings and Russian indictments

by Joanne Black

Slaughter in a school and Russian social-media mischief: the US is under siege.

Read more
Beck to go back to basics at Auckland City Limits
87417 2018-02-24 00:00:00Z Profiles

Beck to go back to basics at Auckland City Limits

by James Belfield

Before headlining Auckland City Limits, Beck talks about celebrating his musical past on stage and on record.

Read more
Islands of the Gulf: How the Hauraki has changed
87427 2018-02-24 00:00:00Z Television

Islands of the Gulf: How the Hauraki has changed

by Fiona Rae

A broadcaster revisits her mother’s iconic Islands of the Gulf TV series to see what’s changed since the 60s.

Read more
Hokianga's Wild West fest's unusual way of fundraising
86388 2018-02-24 00:00:00Z Life in NZ

Hokianga's Wild West fest's unusual way of fundrai…

by Peter De Graaf

Once a year, the Wild West saddles up and rides into Waimamaku for a day of highway robbery.

Read more
Back on track: $60m to go into regional rail
87519 2018-02-23 14:43:30Z Economy

Back on track: $60m to go into regional rail

by Jane Patterson

Five regions will receive just over $60 million for rebooting rail in the first chunk of money from the Provincial Growth Fund.

Read more
Ricky Houghton is about finding innovative solutions to the issues facing Māori
87510 2018-02-23 14:21:31Z Profiles

Ricky Houghton is about finding innovative solutio…

by Clare de Lore

No government on their own can fix the problems facing Māori in the Far North, warns Local Hero of the Year Ricky Houghton.

Read more